The Anecdotal Economist is all in favor of now-healthy financial institutions, courtesy of bogus Q1 earnings (huge wind assists from AIG derivatives unwinds, trading profits, mark-to-make-believe and the best, right Citi?, theoretical discounted debt buy-back gains), repaying the government and getting on with the business of fleecing credit card customers and mortgage refinancers and a rapid resumption of unrestricted, astronomical pay and bonus plans, but the fine print of the TARP repayment term sheet must contain one vital provision:
TARP, if repaid, has to be an one-off for the TBTFs. When If the economy continues to head down the crapper, if the green shoots turn out to be weeds, if the green shoots get scorched, if home foreclosures double - again, if credit card default rates hit 20 percent, if personal and business bankruptcies double - again, if unemployment reaches 12 percent, if states, counties and municipalities go broke and tax revenues at all levels evaporate, well...boo-frigging-hoo, too bad for you.
Are you listening, Government Sachs? Did you catch that, Jamie? Taking notes, Kenny? If you pay back the TARP - THAT'S IT. No more government rescues again, ever.
So if, in future quarters, your metrics go south and you begin to report crappy results - again - and the shorts come after you with a vengeance - again - and it turns out 2009 earnings really were make-believe, do not demand expect another gift from Timmy, Ben and Sheila (and Larry and Bob).
If there needs to be a next time, to again save the TBTFs, the U.S. economy and the world from financial armageddon and meltdown, we respectively request it be done the old-fashioned way: Failing banks must be seized, management and boards must be dismissed, common and preferred stockholders and unsecured bondholders wiped out, toxic waste removed and new, solvent institutions re-opened. The FDIC has done this for billions of years. It can do it again.
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